Metrics as a Lifeline Oracle: From Diagnosis to Predicting the Future

Product quality can begin to degrade long before it becomes obvious.
In this talk, I will present an approach to early detection of crisis states through analysing the dynamics of key metrics.

I will explain how, based on five criteria and simple statistical methods — without using machine learning — to build a system that not only reflects the current state, but also forecasts when a team may enter a “yellow zone” and how many weeks remain before reaching a “red zone”.

I will demonstrate how this works using real examples from my team’s practice: from collecting data in Jira to decision-making.

Who it's for: team leads, QA leads, product managers, and engineers who want to replace reactive responses with proactive quality control.

The focus of the talk is on practical implementation: selecting metrics, setting thresholds, collecting data, and introducing a culture of predictive analysis within the team.